The election in NY-23rd is about third party power, and professional politicians are trying to suppress that fact. Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats want the public to realize this, for obvious reasons. The media are complicit with establishment insiders, so they are not saying anything. And the bloggers, bless them, who would ordinarily be the purveyors of truth, don’t have the length and depth of political experience to understand what is going on. It requires an understanding of the legal mechanics of candidate selection and a long memory…

Let us be perfectly clear about the situation in New York’s 23rd Congressional District special election. Three distinct political parties with legal status in New York put up viable candidates:

• The Republican Party nominated New York State Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava in a smoke-filled room deal.
• The Democratic Party nominated community activist and 30-year practicing lawyer Bill Owens.
• The Conservative Party nominated community leader, business entrepreneur, and Certified Public Accountant Doug Hoffman.

The fresh-faced Hoffman, reminiscent of Jimmy Stewart in Mr. Smith Goes To Washington, has the most appeal with voters in the district weary of government excess (almost an art form in the state of New York), and has pulled ahead in the polls. The Conservative Party selected the most likable candidate and has the best message, and so they are ahead. It is as simple as that. It is a reprise of the election of US Senator James Buckley on the Conservative line in 1970, when he proved more popular than both the Republican and Democratic candidates.

There is nothing sacred about the Republican and Democratic parties. Political party organizations are not provided for in the Constitution of the United States. They are merely incorporated entities that provide for pooling money and manpower to support candidates for public office. They have acquired the veneer of “official” status by being around for a long time, but they are no more “official” than any newly minted party, which can be formed under state election law by meeting certain requirements.

For example, to put a name on the ballot in New York State requires the signatures of five percent of the registered voters in the juridiction.  As of April 1, 2009, there were 15,339 registered voters in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.  So volunteers had to collect valid signatures from at least 767 registered voters on “designating petitions” for Doug Hoffman to run for Congress.

Do you understand how feasible that is? Twenty people collecting 10 signatures per night for one week can collect 1400 signatures. That is easily done by going door to door in your neighborhood. Or you can just stand outside the local grocery store and collect signatures from shoppers as they enter. The totals rack up quickly. It is no more difficult than, say, selling Girl Scout cookies. And your kids can do that.

One advantage that the two so-called “major” political parties have is that they retain a cadre of volunteers trained in the collection of signatures, which have to meet certain book-keeping requirements. For instance, the person has to sign the petition in exactly the same way that his or her name appears on the voter registration. So you need to have that information before you start your rounds, but that information is a matter of public record, and the state cannot deny you access to it. The other advantage of the “major” parties is that they have established fund-raising channels. And as we see in NY-23rd, that isn’t doing them a lot of good in the face of an outraged populace.

On Thursday, February 19 of this year, CNBC reporter Rick Santelli called for a “Chicago Tea Party” while reporting from the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade. Within two short months, powered only by bloggers, a national “tea party” movement had organized across the country to hold rallies on tax day, April 15. Along about the 4th of July, another round of tea parties erupted across America, and sentiment grew for a march on Washington. A little over two months after that, one of the largest grass-roots crowds ever seen in the District of Columbia marched on the Capitol.

What if…

What if, instead of attending rallies, or marching on Washington, these aroused patriots had been carrying designating petitions? The whole political landscape of America could be changed within one year! And that is the 900 pound gorilla in the political closet that the Republicans and Democrats do not want you to know about or think about. It scares them witless.

All the talking heads and political hacks are painting the congressional race in NY-23rd as a rift in the Republican ranks. It is not. It is a third party candidate proving that the Republicans and Democrats can be made irrelevant in the face of tea party power. It is proving this in the full glare of the national spotlight. And the only way that the entrenched politicians can save their own bacon is by spinning the story to distract the public from the obvious truth. All the king-makers’ horses and all the king-makers’ men cannot defeat an honest tea party patriot once ordinary Americans wake up.

A poll conducted over the weekend by the Club for Growth shows Conservative Doug Hoffman surging into the lead in New York’s 23rd Congressional District. The Oct. 24-25 poll shows Conservative Doug Hoffman with 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens with 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava with 19.7%, and 22% undecided.

Multiple viable political parties have existed in New York State for some time. In addition to the Republican and Democratic parties, there have been the Liberal and Conservative parties, and more recently the Working Families Party which was organized by the now-infamous Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN).

The Conservative Party was founded in 1962, and eight short years later, James Buckley was elected to the United States Senate running on the Conservative line only, in a three-way race against Republican and Democratic candidates. Popular Buffalo mayor Jimmy Griffin was first elected solely on the Conservative line in 1977, and served for sixteen years.

Many see in the Hoffman candidacy a reprise of the Buckley contest. Outsiders look at party labels, and assume that Hoffman is splitting the Republican vote with Scozzafava, leaving Owens with the Democratic half. But that is not the way New York State works — it divides along conservative-liberal lines. In reality, Owens and Scozzafava are splitting the liberal vote, leaving Hoffman with the conservative half.

The Hoffman candidacy is also noteworthy for attracting the support of tea party patriots throughout the country, giving it national resonance. A Hoffman win would have tremendous implications for grass roots power, especially since both Barack Obama and Bill Clinton have been fundraising for his Democratic opponent and Newt Gingrich has vehemently supported his Republican opponent.

Doug Hoffman has been compared to the Jimmy Stewart character in Mr. Smith Goes to Washington. If he wins, for a moment we can all enjoy the feeling of a return to those more honest times.

The candidacy of Dede Scozzafava has divided the GOP between its Reagan conservatives and the party establishment. 

Leftist progressive Republicans might not raise the eyebrow of your average Snowe-blind Maineiac, but the thought of adding another DIABLO (Democrat In All But Label Only) statist-minded representative to Washington has GOP conservatives and libertarians apoplectic.

Scozzafava is in a three-way race with Democrat candidate Bill Owens and Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman to fill the seat of departing Republican John McHugh in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.

Scozzafava, who has been lauded by Newt Gingrich, supports abortion, homosexual marriage, Brother O’s stimulus spending, cap-and-trade, and Card Check; and is endorsed by Markos Moulitsas, founder of The Daily Kos; NYSUT (New York State United Teachers), the largest labor union in New York and affiliate of the National Education Association, and ACORN’s (Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now’s) Working Families Party.

Hoffman, the Reagan conservative in the race, is supported by former Alaska governor and 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate, Sarah Palin, former vice chairman of the 2008 Republican National Committee Platform Committee, Ken Blackwell, former Majority leader Dick Armey, Minnesota congresswomen Michele Bachmann, former Republican Senator and Republican presidential candidate, Fred Thompson, founder of the Campaign for Working Families, Gary Bauer; the Wall Street Journal and the conservative Club for Growth in Washington, D.C.

Right now Democrat Bill Owens is leading Hoffman Scozzafava, but Hoffman’s poll numbers have been steadily rising and have surpassed Scozzafava, which means that Scozzafava is now just a spoiler and could keep Republicans from holding  the seat that McHugh routinely won by 2-to-1 margins.

Hoffman is running as the Conservative Party’s candidate because New York’s local GOP establishment entered their “smoke-filled room” and chose Scozzafava behind closed doors, bypassing a primary and the party’s grass-roots voters.

Scozzafava’s leftist politics aren’t the only embarrassment for the Republican Party. She called the police on John McCormack, a Weekly Standard blogger, who questioned her about support for Card Check and then used the propagandist media to smear the journalist.

The call has gone out for Scozzafava to withdraw or be dumped from the race. More than a dozen conservative bloggers and organizations have called for her resignation and for the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) and the Republican National Committee (RNC) to withdraw their support and put their resources behind the real Republican in the race.

If Hoffman wins the big one, his campaign will become the template for grassroots conservative campaigns nationwide next year. The special election for New York’s 23rd Congressional District just might be the spark that ignites an internal revolution to regain the soul of the GOP and bring common sense and sanity back to the party of Ronald Reagan and Barry Goldwater.

A handful of state and local elections will provide our first public rating of Democratic socialism in a few days. Within months of sweeping into power in both House and Senate, as well as the presidency, the Dems have evoked the largest citizen protest movement in our country’s history. Soon we’ll see how that translates into political capital at the polls.

Two states are holding gubernatorial elections — New Jersey and Virginia. Both races are a study in how a political party can shoot itself in the foot.

The race for governor of New Jersey has been particularly tacky, thanks to Democratic candidate and incumbent governor Jon Corzine, who is running for a second term. Instead of campaigning on issues, he has denigrated his Republican opponent for being overweight. Television ads show footage of the portly Chris Christie struggling to get out of a car, while the narration accuses him of “throwing his weight around.” Since our country is considered to be the most obese in the world, this tactic may backfire.

Earlier this week, the Rasmussen poll showed challenger Christie leading Corzine 41% to 39%. But in New Jersey, Democrats have a history of coming from behind. Public sentiment is against Corzine by much greater margins, and that should afford an overwhelming victory for Republicans. But another Republican, Chris Daggett, is running as an independent, and siphoning off 11% of the vote, according to the poll. So in a totally favorable political environment, Republicans may still manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

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The situation in Virginia is much better for Republicans. The Democratic primary yielded the party’s worst possible candidate as the nominee. In the first contested Democratic primary in twenty years, state senator Creigh Deeds defeated the personable former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe and former state delegate Brian Moran. Subsequently, Deeds has made every mistake in the public relations manual. No one has a clue what he stands for, because his ads are all negatives about his opponent. He is paying big bucks to provide name recognition for the other team.So in Virginia the Republican, former state attorney general Bob McDonnell, will likely sweep to victory. The most recent Rasmussen poll shows McDonnell holding a seven point lead, with McDonnell at 50% versus Deeds at 43%. But here’s the interesting part — poll respondents rate Obama as a negative for Deeds:

McDonnell also has been trying to link Deeds’ fortunes to those of President Obama. Deeds last month seemed to distance himself somewhat from the president but now says he hopes Obama will come to the state to campaign for him.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of Virginia voters say Obama’s performance is at least somewhat important in determining how they will vote, with 36% who say it is very important.

The bad news for Deeds is that just 23% say they are more likely to vote for the Democrat if Obama campaigns for him in Virginia. Forty-three percent (43%) say it would make them less likely to vote for Deeds….

Even as Obama joins Deeds for a final campaign swing in Hampton Roads, the Obama team is spouting negatives about their candidate, in hopes of minimizing the appearance that the upcoming loss reflects negatively on Obama:

Sensing that victory in the race for Virginia governor is slipping away, Democrats at the national level are laying the groundwork to blame a loss in a key swing state on a weak candidate who ran a poor campaign that failed to fully embrace President Obama until days before the election….

A loss for Deeds in Virginia — which for the first time in decades supported the Democratic presidential candidate in last year’s race — would likely be seen as a sign that Obama’s popularity is weakening in critical areas of the country. But the unusual preelection criticism could be an attempt to shield Obama from that narrative by ensuring that Deeds is blamed personally for the loss….

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Then there’s the race in New York’s 23rd Congressional District. The seat was just vacated by John McHugh, a moderate Republican who left to become President Obama’s Army Secretary. The special election to fill the vacancy pits so-called “moderate Republican” Dede Scozzafava against Democrat Bill Owens, in a race that Scozzafava was favored to win.  But in New York there are robust minor parties that can make a big difference. You may recall that Jim Buckley was elected to the US Senate in 1970 running on the Conservative Party line only in a three-way race. And this year’s conservative candidate in the 23rd, Doug Hoffman, is rising in the polls, pulling support from Scozzafava. Not only that, Hoffman has picked up some serious Republican endorsements, including former senator Fred Thompson and former House majority leader Dick Armey. And this morning’s bombshell — Sarah Palin endorsed him.What is nationally interesting about this localized race is the forecast of change in the traditional political landscape. In a terrain dominated by two parties, Republican and Democrat, political professionals must now account for a groundswell of independents loyal to neither. There has always been concern about the “independent vote,” but the tea party movement has brought it to prominence as never before. And Doug Hoffman is regarded as the “tea party candidate.”

More than that, like Buckley before him, Hoffman has a shot at winning as a third party candidate. Registration in the district gives Republicans a slight edge over Democrats, but it swings. The district went for George Bush, but then went for Obama.

At first glance, this looks like a race where the Democrats are united, and Hoffman is splitting off the conservative segment of the Republican vote. But looks can be deceiving. New York has long had four viable parties — Republican, Democrat, Liberal, and Conservative. And New Yorkers tend to divide along liberal/conservative lines. Seen this way, the race can be viewed as splitting the liberal vote between Owens and Scozzafava, with Hoffman getting the other half. All that is needed for Hoffman is enough money and name recognition to pull him into the mainstream. And the “tea party” movement has come on strong to give him that, with donations pouring in from the whole country.

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The obvious path to a Republican win in New Jersey would be for Chris Daggett to drop out. That won’t happen, and we can only hope that Christie can hold his slim lead and win anyway. But yesterday, Michelle Malkin proposed an interesting solution to the split vote in New York’s 23rd. She suggested that the Republican should withdraw.

It’s time for the GOP to cut bait on radical leftist Dede Scozzafava. Dump Dede and quick. I repeat: Can the Republican establishment hear conservatives now?

Michelle follows this with a list of links to other publications calling for Scozzafava’s withdrawal. Quite a chorus! And a first election time look at “tea party power.”